Construction Outlook 2027: Market, Hiring and Salary Forecast

The construction outlook for 2027 is slow growth in buildings and a pullback in infrastructure. The AIA Consensus Construction Forecast, updated July 20, 2026, projects nonresidential building spending up 3.0% in 2027 after a 0.3% dip in 2026, with data centers up about 25%. Dodge Construction Network projects inflation-adjusted 2027 starts up 2% for residential, up 1% for nonresidential and down 10% for nonbuilding work.

The people to build it are the tighter constraint. Associated Builders and Contractors says the industry will need to bring in 456,000 new workers in 2027. Pay keeps climbing too: construction wages rose 3.0% in the year ending September 2026, and 2027 raise budgets sit at 3.4% to 3.5% in the major salary surveys.

Modest growth plus a short bench means the contractors who staff early get the work.

Last updated: November 2026

Construction Outlook 2027 at a Glance

Sources: AIA Consensus Construction Forecast, July 20, 2026. Dodge Construction Network, October 28, 2026. Associated Builders and Contractors, January 15, 2026.

Where the Construction Market Stands Going Into 2027

The market is heading into 2027 soft overall and strong in a few places.

Total U.S. construction spending ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $2,186.1 billion in September 2026, 2.7% below September 2025, according to the U.S. Census Bureau (released November 2, 2026).

Contractors still have work lined up. The ABC Construction Backlog Indicator rose to 8.7 months in September 2026, up 0.2 months from a year earlier, on data center strength.

The AIA panel raised its 2027 nonresidential outlook from 2.2% growth in January to 3.0% in July, and credited the change almost entirely to data center activity.

That is the shape of 2027: the total barely moves, and the growth sits in a handful of markets.

Construction Forecast 2027 by Market

Data centers. The AIA panel expects data center spending to grow 33% in 2026 and about 25% in 2027. ConstructConnect’s autumn 2026 forecast expects the expansion to moderate from 2027, so the growth rate slows even as the dollars stay high.

Healthcare. AIA projects healthcare spending to accelerate from 2.6% growth in 2026 to 4.4% in 2027.

Manufacturing. After an expected 11.6% drop in 2026, AIA sees manufacturing spending roughly flat in 2027, down 0.6%.

Infrastructure and utilities. Dodge projects nonbuilding starts down 10% in 2027 after adjusting for inflation.

Contractors read the markets the same way. The AGC of America and Sage 2026 outlook, released January 8, 2026, asked 951 contractors across 49 states which markets they expected to grow or shrink. The score is the share expecting growth minus the share expecting decline.

Source: AGC of America and Sage, 2026 Construction Hiring and Business Outlook, January 8, 2026.

Everything tied to electricity, water, chips and care is growing. Offices, malls and campuses are not. The same pressure that created a data center hiring crisis in a handful of states is spreading to every market with a power or healthcare backlog.

The Construction Workforce Outlook for 2027

Demand is only half the equation. The other half is that the people to build it are not there.

Associated Builders and Contractors estimated the industry needs to attract 349,000 net new workers in 2026 and 456,000 in 2027, on top of normal hiring.

The pressure reaches the office, not just the field. In the AGC and NCCER 2026 Workforce Survey of 1,830 respondents, run in July and August 2026, 87% of firms with salaried openings said those roles were as hard or harder to fill than a year earlier. And 42% said worker shortages had delayed projects, the most commonly cited cause of delay.

Two outside forces add to it. In the January 2026 AGC and Sage outlook, roughly 70% of firms said they were affected by tariffs and 33% said immigration enforcement had affected them in the past six months, which pulls at the craft labor pool that feeds the leadership pipeline. Fewer field workers today means fewer superintendents in five years.

Public wage data shows the squeeze at the top. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics tracks construction managers at a median of $114,990 as of May 2025. It projects the category to grow 9% from 2025 to 2035, much faster than the average for all occupations, with about 49,700 openings a year.

What TBG’s 2026 Openings Say About 2027 Hiring

Our own job board shows where contractors are already putting their money. Here is every opening TBG posted from January through October, compared with the same months of 2025.

Source: TBG job postings, January 1 to October 31 of each year, grouped by job title. TBG search activity, not an industry survey. Selected rows; the full table is in our construction hiring trends 2026 report.

Contractors are hiring the people who run jobs in the field, not adding executives. That fits a 2027 where the work is there but the margin for error is thin.

Construction Leadership Roles Hardest to Fill in 2027

The markets growing fastest are also the most systems-heavy and schedule-critical work in the industry. A data center is not a warehouse with servers. It is a power and cooling project wrapped in a shell, and it lives or dies on coordination.

The clearest squeeze is on MEP leaders. Mechanical, electrical and plumbing is the long-lead, high-risk scope on every data center, hospital and power job, and there are not enough project managers and superintendents who have actually run it. Right behind them are VDC and BIM managers, because the only way to keep those trades from clashing in the field is to catch it in the model first.

Field leadership is just as tight. A mission-critical superintendent who has closed out a live data center or an occupied hospital is one of the hardest people in construction to hire, because the contractors who have one are not letting them go. Bid risk runs high on these jobs too, which keeps demand up for preconstruction leaders who can price them without leaving margin on the table.

What Construction Leaders Earn Heading Into 2027

Here is the national range for the leadership roles that run the growing work: the lowest regional 20th percentile to the highest regional 80th percentile.

Source: TBG 2026 Construction Salary Survey, base salary only; excludes bonus, vehicle, per diem and long-term incentives. Preconstruction roles cover four of six regions.

Where a candidate lands in that range depends on level, region and the total package. A strong chief estimator weighing two offers compares bonus, vehicle and long-term incentive, not base alone. Contractors can test an offer against the full 2026 Construction Salary Survey before it goes out.

Construction Salary Outlook 2027: How Fast Pay Is Rising

Construction pay is still rising, but more slowly than a year ago. Wages and salaries in the construction industry rose 3.0% in the 12 months ending September 2026, down from 4.1% a year earlier, according to the BLS Employment Cost Index (released October 30, 2026). All private industry rose 3.1%.

Paychecks tell a similar story. Average hourly earnings for all construction employees reached $41.69 in September 2026, up from $40.01 a year earlier, about 4.2%, according to BLS payroll data (preliminary). The total private average was $37.81, up 3.0%.

Employers are planning 2027 raises in the same range. These are all-industry figures; none of the surveys reports construction separately.

Contractors are already paying up to keep salaried people. In the AGC and NCCER 2026 Workforce Survey, 53% of firms raised base pay for salaried workers by more than they did a year earlier.

Here is what that means for a 2027 budget. A raise of about 3.5% is the norm for keeping the people you have. On a Midwest project manager at the 2026 survey median of $133,550, that is about $4,700. Hiring an employed leader away from a competitor costs far more: the gap from median to 80th percentile pay runs $15,000 to $25,830 for project managers and Superintendent I, depending on region. See every level in our construction project manager salary guide.

Retention is cheaper than replacement. Budget the raise.

What Contractors Should Do Before 2027

Start earlier than feels necessary. A senior leadership search on a specialized job runs weeks, not days, because the right person is employed and has to be recruited, not sourced from an application. Waiting until a project is funded to begin looking is how a start date slips.

Budget for the whole hire, not just the salary. Our breakdown of the cost to hire a construction PM or superintendent covers the offer it takes to win and what an empty seat costs.

Then move fast on the short list. The candidate has options, and a two-week silence after the final interview loses the hire.

If you have a 2027 seat to fill on a data center, power, healthcare or water job, you can open a confidential search with our construction executive recruiters or call 248.647.7766. The first conversation is about scope and market rate, not resumes. Leaders weighing their own next move can look at current construction leadership jobs instead.

Construction Outlook 2027: FAQ

What is the construction outlook for 2027?

Slow growth in buildings and a pullback in infrastructure. The AIA Consensus Construction Forecast (July 2026) projects nonresidential building spending up 3.0% in 2027. Dodge Construction Network (October 2026) projects inflation-adjusted starts up 2% for residential, up 1% for nonresidential and down 10% for nonbuilding work.

Which construction markets will grow in 2027?

Data centers lead. AIA projects data center spending up about 25% in 2027 (24.7% in its forecast table), commercial up 5.8% and healthcare up 4.4%. Manufacturing is roughly flat at down 0.6%.

How big is the construction labor shortage in 2027?

Associated Builders and Contractors estimates the industry needs to bring in 456,000 new workers in 2027, up from 349,000 in 2026. In the AGC and NCCER 2026 Workforce Survey, 87% of firms with salaried openings said those roles were as hard or harder to fill than a year earlier.

Which construction jobs will be hardest to fill in 2027?

Field leadership on data center, power, healthcare and water projects. TBG’s superintendent openings rose 84% from January through October 2026, and MEP leaders, mission-critical superintendents, VDC managers and preconstruction leaders are the tightest pools.

What do construction leaders earn heading into 2027?

Based on TBG’s 2026 Construction Salary Survey, base pay runs $107,860 to $183,040 for project managers, $173,600 to $271,970 for general superintendents, and $186,560 to $325,000 for senior project directors and executives, depending on region.

Will construction salaries go up in 2027?

Yes, at about the same pace as 2026. Construction wages and salaries rose 3.0% in the 12 months ending September 2026, according to the BLS Employment Cost Index, and the major 2027 salary budget surveys project raises of 3.4% to 3.5% across industries. Hiring an employed leader away from a competitor still costs more than a raise.

The contractors who win the 2027 work will be the ones who hired the leaders to run it in 2026.